Will AI replace junior developers? Not likely

By Daniel Tomko

If you're entering tech today, you've probably heard some version of the same message: AI has or is going to replace junior developers. Companies are only hiring seniors. The role is gone.

But that’s not quite true. The junior developer role hasn’t disappeared; it’s just become harder to define, and harder to access.

Five years ago, the pathway into tech was more predictable. Bootcamp, resume polish, a few side projects…land a job. Today, the ground has shifted. Companies are cautious, the bar is higher, and the role itself is evolving in real time.

A shifting market, not a vanishing role

During the pandemic-era tech boom, the market was more forgiving. Startups were flush with funding, scaling fast, and willing to take chances on junior talent. Now, after years of overhiring, layoffs, and uncertain roadmaps, companies are more conservative, especially with hires that require mentorship or long onramps.

That shift coincides with the rise of AI tools that promise to increase engineering velocity. The result: open roles today skew toward mid- or senior-level engineers who can operate independently in an environment that’s still figuring itself out. Companies are still working to understand staffing requirements as engineering productivity patterns change due to AI.

In the meantime, the uncertainty makes it harder for companies to define what a junior role should be. The expectations for the role are still in flux, and many teams are pausing junior hiring until they catch up.

Expectations have risen

The hiring process for early-career engineers has changed in both structure and tone.

It’s now common to see entry-level candidates asked to complete system design interviews, something that, not long ago, was usually reserved a for senior-level roles. 

That shift isn’t necessarily about AI alone; it’s also a reflection of how the broader tech landscape has changed. Teams are leaner. Headcount is tighter. When a company decides to hire, it often wants someone who can contribute with minimal ramp-up.

That means you have to show up with strong fundamentals. Showcase fluency that shows up in how you debug, how you talk through tradeoffs, and how you understand edge cases. That’s still hard to fake, and still hard to replace. 

What makes an engineer stand out today is the ability to bridge those technical skills with product thinking: breaking down large, messy problems, understanding customer needs, and translating both into working systems.

These are the connective skills that make a difference on small, fast-moving teams. They’re harder to teach on the job and harder to evaluate from a portfolio alone, which is why interviews now reflect that reality.

Relationships matter 

One of the best investments you can make right now is in your network.

AI has flooded the field with well-formatted resumes and polished GitHub profiles. In a market where most junior roles are paused, vague, or overloaded with applicants, it’s increasingly hard to stand out based on a resume alone. Everyone has a portfolio. Everyone has a clean-looking GitHub. Those things are baseline. 

What moves things forward is someone who knows your work and is willing to vouch for you.

This means:

• Staying close to peers in your graduating class who are also navigating the job market
• Reaching out to near-peers who are one or two years ahead of you 
• Finding good mentors 
• Being generous in return, whether it’s reviewing a resume, sharing a job post, or talking through an interview experience

There’s also a practical reason why networking matters more now. AI makes code easier to write and content easier to fake, and credibility is harder to build from scratch. When everyone’s projects look good, referrals matter more. Warm intros matter more. Context matters more.

The need for networking isn’t new. Tech has always favored the well-connected. But right now, it’s more true than ever. And it’s something you can start building today, even if the job you want isn’t open yet.

What AI changed (and what it didn’t)

AI has changed how engineers work, but not in the way some headlines suggest. 

AI tools like Copilot, Cursor, and Windsor have dramatically reduced the time it takes to scaffold, prototype, or debug. That means individual engineers can cover more ground. But the fundamentals of good engineering — judgment, context, communication — haven’t gone away.

If anything, they’ve become more important. Today’s most effective engineers aren’t the ones who can prompt an LLM to write a function. They’re the ones who can tell whether the output makes sense, whether it introduces risk, and whether it fits the broader system.

Understanding how to use AI tools is now part of the baseline. But it’s your ability to evaluate and adapt them that actually sets you apart. And that’s something junior engineers are still expected to learn, not something AI can replace.

When will the market settle?

There’s no clear timeline. 

AI tools are improving quickly, but the implications for team structure, productivity, and hiring are still playing out. Once things stabilize — once the tooling plateaus and companies understand what’s actually needed — junior hiring will return.

It may not look the same as it did five years ago. But the need for early-career engineers isn’t going away.

What to focus on right now

If you’re just starting out, this is a tough environment, but not an impossible one. 

Here’s where to focus:

• Double down on fundamentals. 
• Get comfortable with AI tools.
• Build real relationships with peers and near-peers who can help open doors.
• Stay close to the work. Ship projects. Get feedback. Improve.

Your first role may take longer to land. It may not look how you expected. But the junior developer role isn’t dead, it’s adapting. So should you.

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